Futurists are experts who study trends and then make predictions
about what’s likely to happen. You won’t find their predictions at
the supermarket check out counter. These predictions aren’t based on
visions but on a cool, detached look at the facts.
There are many areas in which
futurists agree and, naturally, many in which they don’t. These are
areas of agreement among futurists:
Technology – This is the
primary driver of change in our future. Significant areas include
telecommunications and electronics, biotechnology as it relates to
agriculture and health, and materials in manufactured products and
construction.
Interdependence – the world
is becoming more interdependent economically and socially
which may create serious issues among nations. Businesses may be
better at facilitating this interdependence than nations.
Decline of the U.S. – Like
it or not, a decline is predicted both militarily and economically
for the U.S. so that America takes its place among equals.
Aging of the U.S.
– This nation’s population is aging which could represent a
real culture shock for a country that’s been young for most of its
history.Slower Growth – Higher
energy costs, increasing world population and greater demand for
resources will slow global economic growth.
Increasing Complexity –
Activities are becoming more complex because more people are
involved and there are new, complex technologies.
Transition with Continuity –
On the other hand, great changes are likely to occur within a
framework of continuity that are likely to keep the basic shape of
society the same.
Energy Transition – The end
of oil as the dominant energy source within the next 50 years
requires a transition to other forms. This change will result in
turbulence among economies and societies.
Demands of the Information
Society – New demands will be placed on literacy and competence.
There will be a requirement for new skills and new training and many
doubt the ability of traditional educational institutions to deal
with these needs.
Education – Much improvement
is required and it remains to be seen if the system can pull it off.
There will be increased competition for traditional educational
institutions.
Nuclear War – While
full-scale nuclear war such as that which was much feared during the
Cold War is unlikely, there is a greater threat that smaller nations
will gain access to nuclear weapons.
And here are some areas where futurists disagree:
Can the world’s population continue
to grow or will it stall? Is technology driving change or is change
driving technology? What will be the impact on the world and the
U.S. of reduced military spending? Will the world care what happens
in Africa? What will be the impact?
Dennis
Hessler
Spyglass Point Productions
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